During Tesla’s fourth quarter earnings call on January 30, we learned several things related to FSD timeline, including the gradual transition from supervised to unsupervised as well as an eventual roll out to the Chinese market.

Source: Tesla

First, Tesla plans to launch the paid version of the unsupervised full-self driving (FSD) in Austin, where Tesla already operates autonomously its internal fleet at its Fremont and Texas factories.

In 2025, Tesla aims to launch the supervised FSD in nearly all markets, including China, where Tesla is only held back by regulations, not technical capability.

Unsupervised FSD will be released to many other cities than Austin in the U.S., including in California.

By end of 2026, Tesla will release unsupervised FSD nationwide throughout the U.S. and in most countries, a prediction that is made “with the best data that I have right now” says Elon Musk.

Elon also revealed the current roadblocks that Tesla is facing with FSD as “they won’t allow us to transfer training video outside of China.

Meanwhile, Musk also explain that “the U.S. government won’t let us do training in China, so we’re in a bit of a bind there.

So I would say we are in a bit of a quandary. So we're already solving that is by literally looking at videos of streets in China that are available on the internet to understand and then feeding that into our training.

So that publicly available video of street signs and traffic rules in China can be used for training, and then also putting it into a very accurate simulator."

Source: pcauto

Elon also used the example of bus lanes in China to explain the complexity of the undertaking: "Bus lanes in China is one of our biggest challenges in making FSD work in China, the bus lanes are very complicated.

And there's like literally hours of the day that you're allowed to be there and not be there. And then if you accidentally go in that bus lane at the wrong time, you get automatic ticket instantly.

So it's kind of a big deal, bus lanes in China. So we're gonna put that into our simulator train on that, the car has to no what time of date is, read the sign, we will get this solved."