Mar. 11-17: 1st Week of Li Auto MEGA sales, Targeting 80,000 Annual Units

Li Auto MEGA & Tesla Cybertruck side-by-side (Source: 谢耳朵 抖音)

Through the week 11 of 2024, from March 11-17, we had our first sneak peak of Li Auto MEGA sales, as well as BYD's Denza D9 sales ramp up after model refresh and price reductions. XPeng X9 continues to sell above the 1,000 weekly mark, while nearly all other MPV models have taken a step back. Let's dive into it:

This week, new energy MPVs Top 10 sales increased by 62.1% WoW, from 3,542 to 5,741. This is also the fourth consecutive week of sales increase since Chinese New Year.

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Denza 2024 refresh is taking all MPVs by storm

Denza D9 (Source: Denza)

Denza's PHEV version outsold any other MPVs by far, with 2,246 units sold, displacing XPeng X9 from the best-selling NEV MPV position. Meawhile, its pure electric version, the D9 EV only sold 68 units, a stark contrast that reveals buyers' preference. In fact, this is also noticeable in Voyah Dreamer's sales, as its PHEV version sold 642 units while its BEV version only moved 73 units.

The D9 DM-i (PHEV version) was orginally priced at 375,800 RMB in 2022, later reduced to 349,800 RMB in 2023, and starts now at only 339,800 RMB. Within just 12 hours on the market after its 2024 refresh release, the D9 had received 11,287 orders,

Accoriding to research firm CarFans, 60-70% of the customer base is made up of business users and the majority of customers are above 40 years of age. These customers insist on the PHEV option and often add the option of a ceiling-mounted screen. The most popular trim is the Honorable edition priced at 409,800 RMB, with black exterior paint and beige interior colors.

Buyers mostly consider the Voyah Dreamer PHEV as an alternative (c. 30% of buyers), followed by the Li Auto MEGA (c. 20%). The XPeng X9 (c. 10%) is not a strong consideration for Denza D9 buyers, as more customers consider Buick GL8 and AITO M9 (both c. 20%) ahead of it.

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Li Auto MEGA falls short of expectations

Li Auto MEGA (Source: Li Auto)

In its first official sales delivery week, the MEGA recorded 1,137 vehicles sold, which accounts for approx. 18.4% of the T10 ranking new energy MPV sales. Note that previous weeks' figures are mostly insurance registrations of MEGA test-drive units. Despite falling short from expectations, this is still a very respectable figure, trailling the X9 by less than a hundred units despite its price premium.

Li Auto is considering right-sizing its MEGA annual sales target from 80,000 to 50-60k units due to weak initial order volumes. The MEGA received 3,000 orders in the first 24 hours and 4,000 orders by mid-month with an initial production capacity of 5,000 units monthly. To reach 80,000 annual MEGA sales, Li Auto would need to sell approximately 8,000 vehicles per month, considering that sales only begun in early March.

According to CarFans, MEGA's main target market is the affluent family, unlike Denza's business users. Despite potential price and/or value proposition overlaps with the Denza D9, ZEEKR 009, and XPeng X9, most buyers (c. 20-30%) tend to consider the Li Auto L9 as an alternative to the MEGA.

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XPeng X9 continues to sell well

XPeng X9 sold 1,137 MPVs, or about 19.8% of the T10 ranking. While this is the third consecutive week of >1,000 unit sales, the X9 is accounting for a declining % share of the T10, from 35.4% in W9 to 29.2% in W10, and 19.8% this week.

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Petrol MPVs are losing ground

When including ICE MPVs in the ranking, we can notice that only 4 of the T10 are internal combustion engines, with two Toyota MPVs in the T5. There are now 2 pure electric MPVs and one PHEV completing the T5 and sales of all ICE MPVs have declined as a % of T10 sales WoW. Toyota Grevia was ranked 3rd four weeks ago and is now 5th, while the higher end Buick Century fell from 6th to 8th. The Buick Century and Mercedes-Benz V-Class sold 253 and 155 units, respectively, both of which pales in comparison to the MEGA sales.

It is becoming increasingly clear that PHEV and BEV MPVs are here to replace the legacy MPVs, previously dominated by Toyota and Buick. Note that the GL8 was not included in the ranking due to its low starting price of 227,900 RMB, but is one of the best-selling ICE MPVs of its class that is at risk of losing market share as more new energy MPVs come into this price segment.