Tesla China Model Y has dominated new energy vehicle sales in China and continues to account for the lion share of the company's sales. However, for that dominance to continue, the Model U Juniper will be a critical factor.
In late October 2023, Tesla China began delivering the facelifted Model 3 "Highland", but that has not affected the popularity of the Model Y.
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In fact, from 2023 to July 2024, the Tesla Model Y accounted for 75.6% of the company's China sales.
In July alone, Tesla China sold 36,299 Model Y and 9,928 Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 78.5% of retail sales.
Tesla Model Y is also the second best-selling new energy vehicle in China in 2024, with 244,116 units sold, behind the much more affordable BYD Qin PLUS (281,082).
Model Y Juniper
In recent days, new Tesla Model Y "Juniper", concept renders were released, showing the possible design changes to the company's best-selling vehicle.
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While Chinese consumers are highly anticipating this facelift, Elon Musk has already confirmed on X that the Model Y "refresh" will not be coming out in 2024.
Recent renders, based on spy photos, reveal through-type light strips at the rear of the Model Y.
The daytime running lights are more slender and the taillights adopt the C-shaped design, similar to the new Model 3 Highland.
Through-type light strip designs have been very popular in the Chinese new energy vehicles market, adopted by major domestic players like Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO.
Currently, only the Cybertruck features a through-type light strips front and rear design.
Spy photos of the Model Y have already evidenced the through-type taillights design.
The interior cabin will be very similar to the Tesla Model 3 "Highland" with the addition of interior ambient light, a carbon fiber-like panel under the central control screen.
The Model Y Juniper is expected to come with better energy efficiency and aerodynamics. It will also be equipped with a 26% larger battery pack of 95 kWh, compared to 75 kWh previously, for the Long Range and Performance versions.
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At the moment, the three Tesla Model Y variants in China are equipped with 220 kW, 331 kW, and 357 kW in total motor power, capable of 554 km, 688 km, and 615 km of CLTC range.
The larger battery implies that the Long Range version will likely exceed 800 km in CLTC range.
Juniper's Importance
After Tesla Model 3 Highland began deliveries in late October 2023, last 12 months (L12M) retail sales exceeded the 140,000 mark until February 2024.
L12M figures stabilize the seasonality effect of the automotive industry and enable trend analysis. Despite a design facelift, L12M sales show that the new Model 3 has not had the level of impact Tesla hoped for in China.
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However, Tesla Model Y's L12M sales saw an all-time high of 472,946 vehicles sold in July 2024, suggesting that despite a lack of new design, Tesla's best-selling car remains extremely dominant.
However, in the Chinese market alone, we are expecting at least three major Model Y competing models coming in 2024 from Geely’s ZEEKR 7X, Huawei-Chery's Luxeed R7, and NIO's Onvo L60.
For that reason, Tesla Model Y Juniper will be a critical facelift to face the new competition in China and to achieve new highs in 2025.