Tesla China forecasts 520,000 units sales of the new Model Y "Juniper" in 2025
globalchinaev
• Jan 27
Last year, the Model Y sold 480,000 units in the Chinese market, ranking first in pure electric single-model sales.
According to 36Kr (36氪), Tesla China's sales forecast for the new Model Y this year is around 520,000 units, an implied 8.3% year-on-year growth.
Tesla's Model Y facelift made its debut in the Chinese market on January 10.
Jiemian News (界面新闻) has learned that the refreshed Model Y has arrived in stores but is available on display only.
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Test drives and deliveries are expected to begin in March. On the first day the actual car arrived in stores, many people came to see it, including some who had already placed orders.
According to local media, as of January 15, the Model Y had received 73,400 orders, with 59,000 of them being for the new model.

Source: Tesla
These news align with previous rumors that the new Model Y had received approximately 50,000 pre-orders on launch day.
Another news outlet quoted a Tesla store salesperson in Guangzhou saying that the new Model Y as already accumulated over 100,000 pre-orders.
The number of orders reflects the level of consumer interest in the new Model Y, but this data does not necessarily represent the final purchase decisions.
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The new Model Y is still in the pre-order stage, and the 1,000 CNY deposit is refundable.
A Tesla salesperson mentioned that about one-third of their orders are for the old model, but the stock of the old model is already limited.
In addition to consumers who decided to purchase after seeing the actual car, a small number of people chose the old model, mainly due to considerations of cost-effectiveness and urgent vehicle needs.
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In terms of price, the new Model Y standard range version is priced at 263,500 CNY, while the old model is priced at 239,900 CNY.
With the addition of a five-year interest-free policy, the old model is nearly 50,000 CNY cheaper than the new one.

Source: Tesla
The new Model Y's overall interior and configuration follow the refreshed Model 3's approach, retaining the turn signal stalk, still using the screen for gear shifting, with slight improvements in battery and range, and upgrades in chassis and handling.
The exterior was either a hit or miss for most. While the new front and rear through-type light design language now aligns with Tesla's unveiled Cybercab and current Cybertruck, but it also resembles many new Chinese brands and even joint-venture models (i.e. Nissan N7).
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Several consumers interested in the refreshed Model Y told Jiemian News (界面新闻) that the new Model Y abandoned the rounded front and headlight design language, an iconic hallmark of the globally best-selling car.
Zhu Kai, General Manager of the data analysis agency Landroads (杰兰路), told Jiemian News (界面新闻) that based on past automotive industry assumptions, mid-cycle refreshes rarely lead to significant sales increases.
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The role of a refresh is to slow down the product lifecycle decline trend and reduce the downward pressure on product prices.
On that note, China EVs & More co-host and former Chief Editor China Auto Review Lei Xing also shared this view, saying that the price increase of the new Model Y has a baked buffer in view of the continued pricing war.

Source: Tesla
The refreshed Model 3 launched last year had limited impact on Tesla's overall sales increase, with sales growth mainly driven by sales promotions.
In the eyes of Chinese users, Tesla's upgrades in ADAS are not as significant as those of new domestic brands, but Tesla remains a recognized brand with a sense of technological innovation.
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Its strong brand influence and product strength continue to provide consumers with a "safe choice."
Last year, several new models from various car brands directly targeted the Model Y, but none have surpassed its sales so far.
The Chinese market's sales last year still maintained year-on-year growth to 657,000 units but did not outperform the overall market growth.
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The reason is evident. The Chinese market is saturated with excellent electric vehicles and consumers are gradually losing their fascination with Tesla.
Zhu Kai believes that this phenomenon has been particularly noticeable in the past six months. "When users mention new energy vehicles, they no longer think of Tesla as their first choice as much as before. Tesla is being distracted by domestic brands, and the competitive pressure is increasing."